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The Fallacy of Conventional Wisdom

The Fallacy of Conventional Wisdom:

    Conventional wisdom says that Huckabee is in the race only attacking Romney and not McCain for personal gain on a McCain ticket.  The problem with this reasoning espoused by Sean Hannity and others is that they are taking two current issues that correlate and attributing them the principle of causation, in essence using the politics of the day to assign the characteristic of a “root cause” to Governor Huckabee’s behavior of attacking Romney and not McCain based on current events and ignoring the history.  The reality is that neither the feud between Romney and Huckabee nor the mutual respect between Huckabee and McCain have changed in the least ever since Iowa, but since other candidates have dropped out and pundits always need a new angle giving us only three choices, our natural instincts lead us to see Huckabee as the “spoiler” and therefore attribute false motives to his behavior.  In short, since Huckabee has the lowest numbers in the polls at this moment but still a significant portion of the voting bloc he has gained the title of a “spoiler” and therefore that title has become their premise for assigning root causes to his behavior based on current events rather than reality.  This characterization of his position is a logical fallacy.  Correlation does not equal causation. 
    The bottom line is that Huckabee of the three candidates is the only one who advocates all three issues of free speech, the second amendment, and the FairTax.  He defends the War in Iraq, has pledged to appoint strict constructionist judges, and has been consistently pro-life.  Huckabee has more executive experience than anyone else in the race, had a balanced budget in Arkansas, and administered the death penalty.  Governor Huckabee is the only real consistent conservative in this race.  Is he electable?  Anybody is electable if we elect them.  Remember, George Allen was the most “electable” candidate, until he wasn’t.  Governor Huckabee won’t seem electable, until he does.  Vote your conscience, vote on principle, vote on information, but don’t vote for the candidate that is least likely to lose because when you vote for the best loser, you are still voting for a loser. 

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