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A Republican War

A Republican War

    A Civil War within the Republican Party is taking place.  Like a piece of meat in a wolf pack every dog has their teeth sunk into a part of the carcass that was the Reagan Revolution.  Power establishment types and mainstream media are falling behind John McCain, teeth clinched into the issues of the War on Terror, moderation, the best perceived practical chances at a general election victory and maintained Republican Party power.  Likewise, cannibals in talk radio, columnists, and conservative pundits at snapping at every other wolf who is not Romney, mouth secured with anti-liberalism on the heart of conservatism that is anti-tax, strict constructionist judges, zero tolerance crack downs on immigration and crime, and economic classical liberalism not realizing that their own teeth are tearing that heart apart.  The Huckabee camp is guarding crucial parts of the kill such as the religious right, the FairTax movement, protectionist leaning conservatives, social conservatives, and taking the most solid position on the second amendment.  Finally, there is the wild Ron Paul wolf, the lone wolf that is looking to collect on the issues of the commodity standard, anti-government libertarianism, isolationism, and anti-war Republicans who will likely crash the convention in 1968 Democrat fashion.  The Republican Party has no one candidate to bring all these parts together during the primary and as a result has fallen into Civil War with McCain supporters compromising on principle for electability, Romney supporters like the cannibals of talk radio setting fire to the 11th Commandment to illuminate the candidacy of Mitt Romney (or more accurately, the guy who is not McCain or Huckabee), Huckabee supporters turning to economic populism and religion, and Ron Paul libertarian types trashing everyone in the race. 
    The only relevant question that remains is that after all is said and done, will there be a wolf pack again searching for the kill that can be liberalism under a McCain or Romney or Huckabee pack leader, or will the Civil War continue bringing forth a third party candidate paving the way for a Democratic Whitehouse?  We may have our answer after Super Tuesday or we may not, but we will get an answer at the convention.  Will the Republican Party come together, or will it fall apart?  If the party falls apart, can it realize the flaws of infighting and form a new conservative coalition in 2012, or will the party go the way of the Whigs?  The convention will be the deciding point because the way the party delegates behave there will reflect or set the tone of the Republican Coalition going into the 2008 general election.  

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The Fallacy of Conventional Wisdom

The Fallacy of Conventional Wisdom:

    Conventional wisdom says that Huckabee is in the race only attacking Romney and not McCain for personal gain on a McCain ticket.  The problem with this reasoning espoused by Sean Hannity and others is that they are taking two current issues that correlate and attributing them the principle of causation, in essence using the politics of the day to assign the characteristic of a “root cause” to Governor Huckabee’s behavior of attacking Romney and not McCain based on current events and ignoring the history.  The reality is that neither the feud between Romney and Huckabee nor the mutual respect between Huckabee and McCain have changed in the least ever since Iowa, but since other candidates have dropped out and pundits always need a new angle giving us only three choices, our natural instincts lead us to see Huckabee as the “spoiler” and therefore attribute false motives to his behavior.  In short, since Huckabee has the lowest numbers in the polls at this moment but still a significant portion of the voting bloc he has gained the title of a “spoiler” and therefore that title has become their premise for assigning root causes to his behavior based on current events rather than reality.  This characterization of his position is a logical fallacy.  Correlation does not equal causation. 
    The bottom line is that Huckabee of the three candidates is the only one who advocates all three issues of free speech, the second amendment, and the FairTax.  He defends the War in Iraq, has pledged to appoint strict constructionist judges, and has been consistently pro-life.  Huckabee has more executive experience than anyone else in the race, had a balanced budget in Arkansas, and administered the death penalty.  Governor Huckabee is the only real consistent conservative in this race.  Is he electable?  Anybody is electable if we elect them.  Remember, George Allen was the most “electable” candidate, until he wasn’t.  Governor Huckabee won’t seem electable, until he does.  Vote your conscience, vote on principle, vote on information, but don’t vote for the candidate that is least likely to lose because when you vote for the best loser, you are still voting for a loser. 

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